@桑之未 汽车流通行业分析师 中国汽车流通协会专家委员会成员
笔者在10月30日发表了一篇《奥迪谋求在中国建立第二家合资公司》文章，对奥迪在中国计划建立第二家合资公司进行了报道。如果奥迪建立了第二家合资公司，奥迪在中国市场发展将会怎样？笔者做了七点猜测。
猜想：
1、 奥迪品牌进一步拉低。上汽没有做过豪华车的经验，没有人才、营销方面的储备，短时期内还会以卖大众、卖别克、卖雪佛兰的思路去卖奥迪；一汽奥迪也不会去经营奥迪品牌，卖车赚钱成了主导诉求，所以奥迪品牌将会被过度消耗，有一汽奥迪经销商称，以后奥迪当大众卖，大众当斯柯达卖，斯柯达当自主卖。
2、 奥迪主导销售。上汽奥迪如果建立合资公司，未来奥迪在中国将会有两个销售渠道，一汽奥迪、上汽奥迪；上汽奥迪新成立的销售公司，将会以德国奥迪为主导，这与宝马、奔驰在中国的销售公司相类似。
3、 网点以现有渠道改造为主。部分一二线城市，由于土地、环保资源限制，现有渠道改造是一个最为快速的方法。上汽奥迪新渠道将会在上海大众的经销商渠道中发展，进口大众经销商渠道也有可能改造成上汽奥迪网络。
4、 两个渠道贴身肉搏。未来有可能两个渠道的奥迪店在一个城市近距离将出现重叠，就像很多投资人会在一个园区中建设上汽大众、一汽大众。
5、 渠道之间会出现争夺人才与资源。上汽奥迪店建设初期，将会从一汽奥迪店挖总经理、销售、售后等等人才，包括售后客源也是重点，毕竟抢现成的售后客户，就马上可以赚到钱。两个奥迪渠道内耗、打架不可避免。
6、 渠道建设不是那么容易。奥迪店投资巨大，一线城市要上亿元，上汽奥迪在消费能力强的城市招募经销商问题不是很大，但是经济不发达的地区，招募工作不一定好做。今年一汽奥迪放出来30多个城市的渠道经销商招募计划，由于受制于城市、城市中的划片区域，以及目前奥迪经营状况，招募的进展比较缓慢。
7、 奥迪店现在都不赚钱，新渠道如何生存？一汽奥迪整个渠道经营上处于亏损状态，由于产品力弱，在未来一两年不会得到改善，维持生存需要很大的现金流，上海大众的经销商并没有相关的经验，如果盈利预期没有达到，新驱动如何生存？上汽奥迪经销商与厂商矛盾不可避免会出现。
SAIC Audi if Audi‘s market structure in China how to change？
Author： Mr。 Sang
On Oct。 30， the author published an article “Audi seeks to establish a second joint venture in China”， and reported on Audi‘s plans to establish a second joint venture in China。 If Audi set up a second joint venture， Audi in the Chinese market development will be like？ I made seven guesses。
guess：
1， the Audi brand further down。 SAIC has not done the experience of luxury cars， no talent， marketing reserves， short period of time will sell the public， selling Buick， selling Chevrolet ideas to sell Audi； FAW Audi will not operate the Audi brand， selling cars to make money Has become the dominant appeal， so the Audi brand will be over-consumption， FAW Audi dealers said that after the Audi when the public to sell， Volkswagen when Skoda sold， Skoda when the independent selling。
2， Audi-led sales。 SAIC-Audi will have two sales channels in China， FAW-Audi and SAIC-SAIC。 The newly established sales company of SAIC will be led by Audi-Audi， which will be sold to BMW and Mercedes-Benz in China。 The company is similar。
3， the main network to the existing channel transformation。 Part of a second-tier cities， due to land， environmental protection， resource constraints， the existing channel transformation is one of the most rapid way。 SAIC Audi new channel will be in the Shanghai Volkswagen dealer channel development， import public distributors channel may also be transformed into SAIC Audi network。
4， two channels close combat。 The future may have two channels of the Audi shop in a city close will overlap， as many investors will be in a park building SAIC-VW， FAW-Volkswagen。
5， there will be competition between channels of talent and resources。 SAIC Audi shop in the early construction， will be dug from the FAW Audi shop general manager， sales， sales and so on talent， including after-sales customer base is also the focus， after all， grab the ready-made after-sales customers， you can immediately make money。 Two Audi channel internal friction， fighting inevitable。
6， channel construction is not so easy。 Audi store huge investment， first-tier cities to a billion， SAIC Audi in the spending power of the city to recruit dealers is not a big problem， but the economically underdeveloped areas， recruitment is not necessarily good to do。 FAW Audi released this year， more than 30 cities in the channel dealer recruitment program， subject to the city， the city scribe area， and the current Audi operating conditions， recruitment progress is slow。
7， Audi shop now do not make money， how to survive the new channel？ FAW Audi channel operating at a loss， due to weak products in the next year or two will not be improved to survive a lot of cash flow， the Shanghai Volkswagen dealer and no relevant experience， if the profit is not expected to reach ， The new drive how to survive？ SAIC Audi dealers and manufacturers will inevitably arise in contradiction。
